Sustainable Competitive Advantage

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Stock Making Money

The path of least resistance is the path of the loser.” H.G. Wells

Wells’ above quote could be applied to a multitude of things. For myself as an investment manager, the risk of falling prey to confirmation bias and shallow analysis can be dangerous. In the confirmation bias, people tend to favor/believe information that supports their current views & hypotheses.

Being intellectual honest about our thesis and rationale for investments is critical to success. How can we become better investors if our thought process isn’t consistently challenged? Are we taking the path of least resistance in our analysis and analytical rigor? Here are a few signs to watch out for:

Scouring for confirming views: Jason Zweig once wrote that, “…people are twice as likely to seek information that confirms their beliefs then they are to consider evidence that contradicts them.” Do you carefully considering opposing views?

Easily shaken out by fluctuations: How can you have faith to ride out short-term fluctuations without the confidence of a full vetted idea? While there is nothing wrong with having tight stops and loss disciplines, it is a whole lot easier to be shaken out if you don’t trust the idea.

Lack of conviction: What is the point of holding a stock that you don’t have high conviction in? I’d rather own an index fund than a stock I don’t love. Investors lukewarm on a holding end up becoming “long-term investors” as they are inevitably under water.

Loss Aversion: Does your original investment thesis still hold? If not are you only holding as you are reluctant to take a loss? Cut bait and get out. These situations lead to investors taking on more risk due to their loss aversion.

Obviously a well vetted idea doesn’t guarantee success, however a lack of reasonable diligence is inexcusable. Making money is too difficult to lose it on stupid decisions. Take a look at your holdings today and ask yourself why you are still holding it? Does it still meet your original criteria?

In one scene of the movie, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, big time capitalists, Bretton James and Louis Zabel, are negotiating a stock bailout for Zabel’s firm, Keller Zabel Investments. In doing so, they reveal two powerful negotiating techniques that can help you secure the best deal.

James offers Zabel a measly $2 per share. “Under these conditions”, starts off James, “… [James and co] are prepared to risk $2 a share”.

“2 bucks?”, questions Zabel, breaking out in a nervous laughter shocked by the ridiculously low offer. “You're out of your mind. The stock was trading at 79 a month ago. Our building alone is worth more than 2 bucks a share. My board will never accept this. There is no way I'm going to sell for 2 bucks a share.”

The government representative steps in to back up James, telling Zabel that the government could never justify a high price for his firm and that he has no other option. If he doesn’t sell then he faces bankruptcy.

But Zabel remains unmoved. “I'll take my chances in bankruptcy court before I sell to that barracuda” angrily responds Zabel.

A blanket of silence falls over the room. It looks like the deal is off. Neither party is willing to pay the price the other is wanting.

The Defining Moment

Realising that the negotiation has reached stalemate, James decides to do something completely unexpected. While he really wants to buy Zabel’s firm and knows he is getting a great deal, he decides to walk away.

“Then we have nothing more to talk about” says James as he gets up out of his chair and turns to walk away.

But just as James reaches the door, Zabel calls out "6". It’s a counter offer.

“3 and that's it” responds James.

“5”

“3”

“Alright, we'll call it an even 4. So we don't look so god damn pathetic.”

James pauses for a moment, looks at his colleague for confirmation, who nods back at him in agreement, before taking a step forward. “3, and not a dime more,” says James and locks in the deal.

There are two key negotiation techniques used in the scene above.

Negotiation Technique 1: Use Anchoring and Adjustment

James started at $2 and Zabel started at $6. In what is called Anchoring and Adjustment (see Those Clever People at Wikipedia and a little phenomenon called anchoring) initial values, regardless of how extreme, have a strong affect on final values. In this case, James used a $2 anchor, not because he thought he would get it for such a low price but because he knew it would get Zabel to start thinking low values. To counter that effect, Zabel used a $6 counter anchor to get James to start thinking higher values.

If you are selling, start by asking a high price. If you are buying, start with a low price. The technique will subtly but strongly influence the figure the other party has in their mind, therefore allowing you to get the best price.

Despite the effectiveness of the technique, however, many people will not feel comfortable asking for an excessively high or low figure because they don't want to appear unreasonable. That is, they don’t want to risk the Zabellian response, ‘are you out of your mind?’

For those people, negotiation technique two provides for a more comfortable approach.

Negotiation Technique 2: Walk Away

Who wins in a negotiation? The one who is willing to walk away.

Guess what? Be willing to walk away. Even if you are willing to pay the asking price, pretend like you can walk away. This technique is especially useful for people who don’t see themselves as hard line negotiators.

Why? Because you do not have to haggle, you do not have to offer unreasonable figures, and you do not have to have a big mouth to use this technique. All it requires is that you risk not making the purchase on that very day, which, for most purchases worth negotiating for, is worth risking for.

Here’s How You Do It:

Next time you are negotiating with a business supplier, nicely tell the person:

“Thanks for your help but the price you’re offering is beyond my budget” (or whatever reason you want to give).

“But I’ll tell you what I’ll do. I’ll leave you my name and number and if you can do me a better deal, then give me a call and we can take it from there."

Now if that is the best price the salesperson can do then you probably will not get a phone call, in which case you can just go back the next day or so and buy the product. But if they can do you a better deal then they will call you. After all, you have already proved to them that you are not willing to pay their asking price.

What is more, 9 times out of 10 you will not even have to come back. If the salesperson is able to do a better deal, they will usually offer it to you on the spot. It will probably be along the lines of, “alright let me try asking my manager again and see if we can do you a better deal”.

Having been on both sides of the negotiation table (as a salesperson and as a buyer), I have seen this technique work over and over for all deals great and small. It is not only one of the most powerful negotiation techniques, but also one of the easiest and comfortable to use, which makes it all the more useful in securing yourself the best deal.

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Monday, August 1, 2011

Making Money With Options

Derek Jeter’s pursuit of hit No. 3,000 finally came to an end on a beautiful Saturday afternoon in the south Bronx. The Yankees’ No. 2 hit his second hit of the game in the second inning right at 2 p.m. local time. Coincidence? Fate? We will never know.

What we know is that on July 9, 2011, Jeter drilled a pitch of Tampa Bay’s David Price into the left field bleachers and became only the second player in history to reach 3,000 hits with a home run. He also became the 28th player overall to reach 3,000 hits and the first in Yankees’ history. Mr. November has added yet another milestone to his glorious career.

Jeter, 37, has two more years left on his current contract with an option for 2014. The aging face of baseball’s most storied franchise will be confronted with new challenges. What will the future hold for Derek Jeter?

It’s highly unlikely that Jeter will rebound from his struggles on the plate. His numbers will continue to decrease and his age will sooner or later become a major obstacle, especially at the shortstop position. Moving him to the outfield? Making him the DH? The Yankees’ options are limited, so what to do with their beloved captain?

Let’s assume Jeter is able to contribute as the team’s shortstop throughout the 2013 season and won’t take the option for 2014, the Yankees would have to pay him $3 million and No. 2 would become a free agent. This means he would be able to sign with any other team or retire. Jeter wearing anything other than a pinstripe jersey seems as impossible as Pete Rose getting into Cooperstown.

Of course we know that it is a crisis not in a sense that the Federal Government is unable to honour all its obligations, a point which I have been making repeatedly. It is a political game of chicken, the result of which can threaten global economic growth.

Debt ceiling itself is something rather pointless. It has never been able to constraint government spending, and the Congress has been raising it routinely, at least until now. Yet it gives opportunities for some pointless political posturing every time when the borrowing limit is reached. As Calculated Risk puts it:

The debt ceiling is a joke. It serves no purpose except political posturing. It is not about the deficit – it is about paying the bills, and the U.S. will pay the bills.

A similar point has been made by James Surowiecki at the New Yorker:

The truth is that the United States doesn’t need, and shouldn’t have, a debt ceiling. Every other democratic country, with the exception of Denmark, does fine without one. There’s no debt limit in the Constitution. And, if Congress really wants to hold down government debt, it already has a way to do so that doesn’t risk economic chaos—namely, the annual budgeting process.

Now, there are ways around the debt ceiling which may or may not have been considered by the Obama Administration, as explained by Yves Smith.

Here are the three ways around:

Use the 14th amendment of the constitution to declare (or threaten to declare) debt ceiling as unconstitutional – but it seems that the administration is reluctant to use this.

Cancel the US government debts held by the Federal Reserve – the government can probably cancel a trillion or two of debts, large chunk of them purchased during the quantitative easing programme. This can buy a year or two, perhaps.

Coin Seigniorage – this requires a little bit more explanation.

The third option, as explained in great detail here, uses the fact that the US Mint can create a platinum coin of any arbitrary face value. The profit from seigniorage (i.e. the face value of this coin minus the cost of making this coin) can somehow go into the Treasury General Account. The Mint can, for instance, mint a few US$1 Trillion platinum coins, book the seigniorage profit at the Federal Reserve Mint’s account, then “sweep” that to the Treasury General Account, magically solving all deficits problems.

It is not quite so clear to me if these are politically viable options, and it is also not quite so clear to me if any of these can be useful tactics on the negotiation table for President Obama to get his way. But at least there are ways around this joke.

This article originally appeared here: 3 Ways Around The Debt Ceiling
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Friday, July 29, 2011

Making Money Quickly

One of the biggest reasons we enjoy the weekend is more time with family and friends. We can make our weekends (and weeks) even better by spending more time being social:

This paper exploits the richness and large sample size of the Gallup/Healthways US daily poll to illustrate significant differences in the dynamics of two key measures of subjective well-being: emotions and life evaluations. We find that there is no day-of-week effect for life evaluations, represented here by the Cantril Ladder, but significantly more happiness, enjoyment, and laughter, and significantly less worry, sadness, and anger on weekends (including public holidays) than on weekdays. We then find strong evidence of the importance of the social context, both at work and at home, in explaining the size and likely determinants of the weekend effects for emotions. Weekend effects are twice as large for full-time paid workers as for the rest of the population, and are much smaller for those whose work supervisor is considered a partner rather than a boss and who report trustable and open work environments. A large portion of the weekend effects is explained by differences in the amount of time spent with friends or family between weekends and weekdays (7.1 vs. 5.4 hours). The extra daily social time of 1.7 hours in weekends raises average happiness by about 2%.

Source: "Weekends and Subjective Well-Being" from NBER Working Paper No. 17180

For more on happiness check out Gretchen Rubin's The Happiness Project or Harvard professor Daniel Gilbert's Stumbling on Happiness.

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When Ronald Reagan ran for President in 1980, it was said of him that he was not the “sharpest knife in the drawer.” The old joke went that in his role in the 1951 role in Bedtime for Bonzo, the chimp that played Bonzo was smarter than the presidential hopeful.

It’s true that President Reagan, for all his charm, may not have been a rocket scientist. However, what he did have – and what many politicians today lack – were defined morals, principles, and ethics. More importantly, he relied on those assets to guide him through many troubling times as President.

In 1981 when Reagan took office this country was in dire straits economically. Stagflation that resulted from Jimmy Carter’s pursuit of altruistic ideals had led to high unemployment, an energy crisis that culminated in gas lines, and awful prospects for future economic growth. Sound familiar?

Among Reagan’s actions as President that re-energized this country economically were tax cuts, deregulation, and interest rate hikes to kill inflation. All things considered, these policies worked phenomenally well, and the US entered a 20-year period of growth led by a manufacturing resurgence.

Many of those same policy shifts would go a long way to correct today’s economic climate, but do not seem to be the mantra of the Obama White House – which is beginning to look more and more like Jimmy_Carter2.0.

Today there are a number of additional policies that could be instituted to create some real economic growth in this country and get more Americans back to work. For instance, the Federal Reserve ought to stop paying interest on excess bank reserves held in the Federal Reserve System. As things stand now, banks can borrow money from the Fed, deposit that money back with the Fed, and actually make money on the spread.

Come to think of it, the Fed shouldn’t only stop paying interest on excess reserves, but charge a holding fee on those same excess reserves. If banks aren’t going to lend money to fuel growth, they obviously don’t need to borrow it in the first place.

Want to see a real political shift in this country? Let’s make it illegal for anything to be withheld from an employee’s paycheck – that means taxes, employee contributions to health benefits, even union dues. Imagine how quickly union membership would fall off, which would encourage manufacturing. Think further about the uproar that would result over taxes if Americans were forced to actively adhere to the onerous cost of financing America’s public sector. Government spending would be cut in half in a matter of weeks.

These are just a few examples of policies that would go a long way to right this country’s course. There are certainly more ideas floating around, some of which are undoubtedly valuable.

However, it’s important for Republican candidates – and voting Americans – to understand that it isn’t necessary for elected officials to know all of this. What IS important is that those officials have strong morals and values. Those who do will tend to surround themselves with the right people; people who have similar principles and DO understand economics, foreign policy, or other areas that fall within the President’s purview.

Conversely, those candidates whose principles are defined by pollsters tend to have infinitely less intestinal fortitude when it comes to decision making. Obama is a fine example of someone who has surrounded himself with all the wrong people.

Consider the debt ceiling debate currently facing Washington. This is a surprisingly simple issue. When the government takes on debt there are only two ways to resolve it: pay it off, or default. Though a startlingly simple problem, it has become convoluted by talking heads in Washington who speak in circles, making every possible effort to confuse Americans.

This and other issues have made it clear that while Obama may be one of the least intelligent people in whatever room he enters, he lacks the humility to admit his ignorance. Instead he favors his image as god-king; a transgression that has served only to worsen the plight of the American people, but a lesson that should be learned by every Republican hopeful in 2012.

Dock David Treece is a discretionary money manager with Treece Investment Advisory Corp (www.TreeceInvestments.com) and is licensed with FINRA through Treece Financial Services Corp. He has appeared on CNBC and numerous radio programs, and also serves as editor of financial news site Green Faucet (www.GreenFaucet.com). The above information is the express opinion of Dock David Treece and should not be construed as investment advice or used without outside verification.

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Friday, July 22, 2011

Instant Payday Loan- Get cash wired for your account

Have you tried applying to get a faxless payday loansat a bank and had no collateral, property or good credit? In the event you said sure you probably keep in mind the sting of rejection that arrived from not getting the kind of lending agreement that you required. Borrowing an amount of money, of any dimension, is tougher now than it was just two years ago and for individuals who need additional money to pay for unexpected bills, health-related expenses or personal needs obtaining a Payday Mortgage is the very best option.

How to Apply For Payday Loans

If you want to apply for a Uk Payday Loan or payday lending anywhere else in the world you'll be requested to current the following items. 1. Proof of earnings - A minimum of 6 months of consistent employment. two. Proof of age - You must be 18 years aged or older. 3. Evidence of financial institution account - This is required because you must create a check to be offered the loan.

The typical payday contract charges a substantial APR (Yearly Proportion Rate) that can assortment from .00 to .00 based on how much money you borrow. The APR that payday lending companies charge has gotten lots of flak lately and also the negative suggestions isn't always according to honesty. The substantial APR that payday lending companies cost is substantial because the term with the mortgage is short (generally 2-4 weeks). The APR is also higher than on other lending contracts due to the convenience with the short phrase loan.

How you can Save Money On Payday Loans

You can save money on faxless payday loansby choosing a local Payday Mortgage Lender over an on-line lender. But in the event you live inside a state exactly where borrowing against your paycheck is outlawed you have to select an online business. When you have your Payday Cash Mortgage authorized, set priority to spend the mortgage off within 30 days simply because the longer you drag out the contract, the more cash you will pay in finance charges towards the loan company.

New Hire Criminal Track record Check

Finding the proper individuals to perform for you has in no way been an simple job. Everybody is outstanding at some thing but you need to determine if they're most likely to be fantastic at doing what you'll need them to do. Not merely that, you need to also make certain that they're going to fit in along with your business and current employees. That is why getting great employment background procedures is important when you're hiring new employees.

I am sure your quest for public records totally free on-line has come to an finish while you read this publish. Sure, gone are these days when we have to research endlessly for track record totally free online information or other this kind of info like track record totally free on-line,criminal background track record ,national criminal track record checks and even potential employee background Even with out articles for instance this, using the Internet all you've got to complete is log on and use any with the search engines like google to find the background check totally free on-line info you need.

Use the forums-don't be frightened to join in on forum discussions with other website members. Ask concerns, reveal advice and construct your professional network com.Be an outstanding listener-demonstrate a genuine curiosity in what the interviewer needs to say. Attempt not to interrupt by interjecting a comment whilst an individual else is talking (even if you're frightened you might neglect the point you'd like to create).

The very best method to keep employees at your production plant.How you can retain workers at your production plant When it comes to employing employees you will find many tips and methods which you can follow to ideally utilize the most effective employees which you can locate.

Whenever you have the persistence to go by indicates with the remainder of this write-up associated to track record examine free on-line you'll undoubtedly understand one or two points that will show truly useful to you. Maintain correct on studying and be correctly knowledgeable about examine totally free online also as other related track record free online,criminal background background , nationwide criminal checks or potential worker background examine information.

In case you're searching to get a reputable business, you need to bear in mind that these solutions will arrive at a cost. Generally, nonetheless, the fee is nominal. You'll discover sites that claim to offer a totally free service, but usually these are extremely best prevented.

Dealing using the Colorado Springs criminal legislation just isn't an ordinary thing and is as a result best left to trained attorneys. The experienced Colorado criminal defen.If an worker has endured an damage at his workplace then he has the right to claim for compensation. The insurance companies nevertheless make an work to stall the identical.

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What can go incorrect will go wrong, at the worst second. They might be because of human mistakes or oversight, incomplete or out-dated details, mistaken identification or identification theft and so forth. What ever the case is, we wouldn't be oblivious to the hurt or victimization and could be well-prepared to encounter as much as problems if needed. And when we do flip up some factor unfavorable but correct in the self-check, we get a chance to fix it forward.

More About Car Insurance coverage Types

Did you know that exactly where you park your car at evening effects just how much you're paying for automobile insurance coverage each and every month? Most insurers won't let you know this when they are signing you up for his or her coverage and this is why you're having to pay much more cash for auto insurance coverage than the next individual which you know.

How You are able to Conserve Cash On Instant car insurance

If you would like to save money in your present automotive insurance coverage strategy or discover cheap car insurance coverage you should consider applying 1 or all of the suggestions within this article to your insurance coverage policy. 1. Maintain a good credit score rating. two. Always ask your insurer for reductions (example: good student discount or great driver discount). three. Safeguard your car with an alarm or perhaps a safety gadget. 4. Maintain your car in good situation. five. Pay a greater deductible each and every year. These actions can all save you hundreds of dollars for each year and simplify your life.

How Your Car Results That which you Spend Every Month

For many individuals if they have a quick, substantial profile car it's their child plus they would never investing it in for something more affordable and decrease profile but when you are on the spending budget and trying to save cash each and every month you need to give selling or investing inside your car some believed because choosing a different automobile may be the distinction among conserving or spending a couple of hundred or much more per year in car insurance.

1 with the things which you ought to by no means do is consider driving with out insuring your car simply because the consequences of driving with out it are far greater than paying for an insurance coverage policy on your vehicle each and every month. Besides the serious financial problems resulting from an accident such as personal bankruptcy in the extremely least you could face tickets, fines, impounding of one's car or much more if you generate with out it. This is why it's usually better to possess insurance coverage on your vehicle or start strolling much more till you can manage it.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Eliminate Credit rating Card Financial debt Fast

Acquiring your instant credit report will provide you with a very essential piece of credit info. These scores range from anywhere among 300 and 900. The greater it is the much better prices you can expect to obtain on loans. Your score will assist you to make feeling of your credit history, it provides a great image of how nicely you are handling your finances as well as offers you insight into precisely what creditors and lenders examine when determining whether you are qualified to get a charge card or mortgage.

This is exactly why we advise that everybody acquire their free credit score score a minimal of one time per year. Whenever you are about to apply for a charge card, it's an excellent plan to obtain a duplicate of your score and report, and examine it to make sure that all of the info is correct. It is feasible to acquire a duplicate of one's report completely free of charge every and each and every yr from each one with the credit score bureaus.

Whilst the over concept is really a completely acceptable indicates of monitoring your credit score standing you can also get a 3 in one report as an option.

This type of report offers the information that seems in your report as compiled by Equifax, Experian and TransUnion and offers you the large image of what your credit history in fact looks like. Usually, a three in 1 credit report gives you a short checklist of possibly difficult info, which you are able to quickly and easily evaluate. It's moreover recognized as being a 3 Bureau Credit history.

Collectors, loan companies, and banks will report to a credit score bureau any time a consumer gets a mortgage, opens up a fresh bank card account, misses a payment on the monthly invoice, or files for individual personal bankruptcy. Nevertheless, they are not needed to report it to all three credit score bureaus. The result is the fact that the no price credit report you receive from one credit score bureau could possibly be missing some important details. That missing information can frequently have a great influence in your credit score status. If you would really like a truly obvious see of how great or dreadful your credit history really is, you need to look at investing in a three in 1 credit report.

A detailed analysis of one's free credit score and report will provide you having a fantastic insight into your financial situation. Within the event you put inside your purchase for a comprehensive credit score score from 1 with the 3 credit bureaus, you can be qualified to obtain your credit score record from Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax within a joint file. They are going to help you in simple evaluation of exactly exactly where you stand and allow it to be feasible for you personally to notice the variations in your 3 credit reviews. It's going to assist you follow all loans and charge cards which are opened inside your title and you also are heading to become inside a position to understand which companies contact the credit score bureaus.

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

The Defining Moment

Negotiation Technique 1: Use Anchoring and Adjustment

Negotiation Technique 2: Walk Away

Monday, August 1, 2011

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